Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BCH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 0.004039 0.004245 0.004456 0.004689 0.004938 0.005198 0.005490
2025-01-12 0.003680 0.003989 0.004319 0.004700 0.005129 0.005598 0.006152
2025-01-19 0.003342 0.003693 0.004079 0.004536 0.005066 0.005666 0.006401
2025-01-26 0.003189 0.003581 0.004022 0.004557 0.005195 0.005938 0.006878
2025-02-02 0.003125 0.003561 0.004061 0.004682 0.005442 0.006350 0.007536
2025-02-09 0.002975 0.003429 0.003957 0.004625 0.005458 0.006477 0.007841
2025-02-16 0.002869 0.003341 0.003899 0.004617 0.005529 0.006668 0.008231
2025-02-23 0.002765 0.003250 0.003830 0.004588 0.005567 0.006815 0.008565
2025-03-02 0.002708 0.003213 0.003825 0.004636 0.005704 0.007091 0.009084
2025-03-09 0.002618 0.003129 0.003757 0.004599 0.005724 0.007210 0.009390
2025-03-16 0.002532 0.003048 0.003688 0.004557 0.005733 0.007312 0.009674
2025-03-23 0.002438 0.002953 0.003597 0.004480 0.005689 0.007337 0.009845
2025-03-30 0.002351 0.002865 0.003514 0.004414 0.005662 0.007387 0.010061
2025-04-06 0.002300 0.002823 0.003490 0.004425 0.005741 0.007593 0.010524
2025-04-13 0.002188 0.002697 0.003351 0.004274 0.005584 0.007447 0.010437
2025-04-20 0.002150 0.002667 0.003336 0.004293 0.005671 0.007661 0.010922
2025-04-27 0.002149 0.002686 0.003390 0.004409 0.005899 0.008096 0.011787
2025-05-04 0.002087 0.002622 0.003327 0.004356 0.005877 0.008149 0.012030
2025-05-11 0.002045 0.002582 0.003296 0.004348 0.005922 0.008305 0.012454
2025-05-18 0.001998 0.002535 0.003254 0.004322 0.005936 0.008412 0.012799
2025-05-25 0.001978 0.002524 0.003260 0.004366 0.006059 0.008699 0.013476
2025-06-01 0.001933 0.002476 0.003215 0.004332 0.006059 0.008784 0.013797
2025-06-08 0.001888 0.002429 0.003167 0.004293 0.006049 0.008853 0.014092